Will Joe Biden Overwhelm Trump in the 2024 Election?
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Despite concerns about his age, public missteps, and controversial policy decisions, Joe Biden continues to display staying power and maintain likability. The President’s popularity remains steady, even when compared to Donald Trump, as indicated by a recent poll showing Biden leading Trump by seven points nationwide.
The survey conducted by WPA Intelligence found that Biden held a 47 to 40 percent lead over Trump. This positive outcome follows Trump’s appearance at a CNN town hall, which garnered praise from Republicans while causing frustration among Democrats due to the opportunity it provided for Trump to promote falsehoods.
Following the CNN forum, Biden capitalized on the moment, urging his supporters to combat MAGA extremism and asserting an “I told you so” sentiment. Additionally, Trump faced a defamation suit alleging his involvement in a mid-1990s incident of rape, further highlighting the contrasting public perceptions of the two leaders.
The WPA Intelligence poll also revealed Biden’s improved performance among Independents compared to previous surveys by the firm. Biden secured a 14-point lead among Independents this month. The poll, which involved 1,571 registered voters, had a margin of error of 2.5 percent.
Notably, 12 percent of respondents remained undecided, suggesting a significant number of voters may consider alternative presidential candidates. Biden’s above-average approval rating of 46 percent is also noteworthy, surpassing his usual polling figures as reported by aggregator FiveThirtyEight, which typically place him in the high 30s to low 40s range.
These findings are particularly encouraging for President Biden, as an earlier shock poll by ABC and The Washington Post in May indicated Trump leading by seven points among likely voters for the 2024 election, and Biden’s approval rating falling to a dismal 36 percent.
Meanwhile, Biden aims to leverage this momentum during the debt ceiling negotiations with Republican lawmakers and aides. This critical negotiation period poses significant challenges, with progressive members of his party urging Biden to resist Republican demands for budget cuts. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell are also taking a firm stance, seeking to address soaring budget deficits and national debt.
Democrats may point to this poll as evidence that the American people prefer Biden’s leadership and endorse “Bidenomics,” characterized by substantial Keynesian government spending as a means to drive the economy. In contrast, Republicans argue that unchecked expenditures in Washington have fueled inflation. The ABC-Washington Post poll aligns with Republican criticism, as 54 percent of voters favored Trump as a better steward of the economy.
However, Independent voters will likely hold the decisive power in the 2024 election, and Biden currently fares better than Trump among this group of centrist voters. WPA pollster Amanda Iovino commented, “It’s evident from the data that Trump’s standing with Independents has significantly weakened since the 2020 election, and he has failed to attract new voters.” This aligns with last year’s election results in key swing states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and others.
As the election season intensifies, state-level polls in swing states will become more influential than national polls. Additionally, Trump’s dominance in current Republican nomination surveys may face challenges as he confronts potential legal hurdles in the future.
