Harris Holds a Narrow Lead: New Polls Show a Tight Race Between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in Key Swing States
ABC; BRANDON BELL/GETTY IMAGES
As the 2024 presidential race heats up, a new poll has sparked concern, revealing that Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in the critical swing state of North Carolina. This development comes on the heels of President Joe Biden’s exit from the race on July 21, paving the way for Harris to become the Democratic nominee.
Since stepping into the spotlight, Harris has been gaining momentum, not only on a national scale but also in crucial battleground states like North Carolina. However, the race remains razor-close, with various polling averages showing Harris holding a slim advantage.
According to The Hill’s polling average, Harris leads Trump by just 1.1 points in North Carolina, with Harris at 48% and Trump at 46.9%. The Silver Bulletin Presidential Model shows an even tighter race, with Harris at 46.8% and Trump at 46.5%. Poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight presents the narrowest margin yet, showing Harris at 45.8% and Trump at 45.6%.
Despite these numbers, Trump’s campaign remains confident. Communications director Steven Cheung cited a Polymarket election forecast, stating that Trump has a 63% chance of winning North Carolina. However, this forecast showed Trump’s lead shrinking to 58% over Harris’s 42% by the end of the week.
North Carolina has long been a battleground state. The last time a Democratic presidential nominee won the state was in 2008 when Barack Obama defeated Republican Senator John McCain. Obama later lost the state in 2012 to Republican Mitt Romney. Trump secured North Carolina in both 2016 and 2020, but by relatively slim margins of 3.6 and 1.3 points, respectively. A Harris victory in North Carolina would be a significant achievement for her campaign.
Harris is also showing slight leads over Trump in other key swing states. In Pennsylvania, she leads by 48.4% to 47.5%; in Michigan, by 48.3% to 46.4%; and in Wisconsin, by 49.5% to 46.2%, according to The Hill. Meanwhile, Trump is ahead in Arizona (47.3% to 47.2%), Nevada (47.3% to 46.3%), and Georgia (49.2% to 46.5%).
The Silver Bulletin model echoes these findings, with Harris leading in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, while Trump holds a lead in Georgia. Similarly, FiveThirtyEight’s averages align with these results, showing Harris ahead in most swing states but trailing in Georgia.
On a national level, Harris leads Trump in all three polling averages, with The Hill showing her ahead by 3.6 points, Silver Bulletin by 4 points, and FiveThirtyEight by 3.5 points. However, the impact of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s recent exit from the race and his endorsement of Trump remains to be seen, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already tight race.
