“Trump Will Lose This Game Miserably”: Analyst Warns Against 25% Tariff on Canadian Imports
© Mike Segar, Reuters
A leading petroleum analyst, Patrick De Haan, has issued a stark warning to President-elect Donald Trump regarding his proposal to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada, cautioning that it could severely backfire. De Haan, known as the “Gas Buddy Guy” for his expertise in fuel market analysis, predicts significant economic and political consequences should the tariffs move forward.
De Haan flagged a report from The Guardian detailing the growing tensions between Canada and the United States. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is under increasing pressure to resist Trump’s tariff plans, with Canadian lawmakers advocating for strong retaliatory measures. Jagmeet Singh, leader of Canada’s New Democratic Party, has called for action, saying, “The only thing a bully responds to is strength. So where is our plan to fight back? Where is the war room?”
The analyst highlighted the risks of escalating a trade conflict, observing that Canadian politicians are “gearing up, thinking of how to retaliate on potential tariffs. This is not a good road to be going down.” Xavier Delgado, an expert at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, emphasized the broader impact of retaliatory tariffs. “Retaliatory tariffs would hit US states hard (36 have Canada as their top export market).
They would also be a major burden on Canadian consumers who are already sour about the economy,” Delgado explained. Responding to the suggestion that Canada and Mexico could embargo oil exports to the U.S., De Haan warned, “Trump will lose this game miserably if Canada decides to take action. Checkmate. Don’t play games you can’t win—the US is more reliant on Canadian crude than Trump realizes.”
De Haan detailed how the proposed tariff would disrupt U.S. fuel markets, particularly in regions dependent on Canadian crude. “A 25% tariff on Canadian oil would have huge impacts to #gasprices in the Great Lakes, Midwest & Rockies, which are major markets where refiners process Canadian oil. You can’t simply process different oils overnight. It would take investments/years. More US supply wouldn’t help,” he explained.
The analyst also shared a map showing how Trump’s proposed tariffs could disproportionately harm several “blue wall” states that supported Trump in the election, such as Michigan and Wisconsin. The tariff’s economic fallout in these key states could jeopardize Trump’s political standing while driving up gas prices nationwide. De Haan’s warning underscores the delicate balance required in managing international trade and the potential costs of unilateral tariff policies on critical U.S. industries and consumers.
